Commercial Real Estate Index

Commercial Real Estate Index

The SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index is an attitudinal survey of local markets completed by commercial real estate market experts (SIOR members). The survey is conducted quarterly and helps measure the state of the commercial real estate market for the United States.

About the Index

The SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index is constructed as a “diffusion index,” a very common and familiar indexing technique for economic measures.

In the SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, a value of 100 represents a well-balanced market for industrial and office property. Values significantly lower than 100 indicate weak market conditions; values significantly higher than 100 indicate strong market conditions. The theoretical limits of this Index are a low of zero, and a high of 200, though it is unlikely that such limits would be approached as long as the property markets are operating efficiently.

The Index is based on a survey questionnaire with ten topics. The topics covered are (1) recent leasing activity; (2) trends in asking rents; (3) trends in vacancy rates; (4) subleasing conditions; (5) levels of concession packages in leases; (6) development activity; (7) site acquisition activity; (8) investment pricing levels; (9) the impact of the local economy on the property market; and, (10) the effect of the national economy on the property market. Survey respondents are given five choices. For each topic, five choices are provided, corresponding to conditions that are very weak, moderately weak, well-balanced, moderately strong, or very strong.

For each question, answers are tallied and the percentage of responses for each of the five choices is calculated. If survey panelists indicate “very weak” conditions (the “a” choices in the questionnaire), the answer is assigned 0 (zero) points; “moderately weak” (“b” answers) earn 5 points; an indication of “market balance” (“c”) receives 10 points; “moderately strong” indications (“d”) score 15 points; and “very strong” (“e”) responses receive a maximum 20 points. Thus a score of 10 for a given question can be earned if responses are evenly distributed across all five choices, if all responses were “c”, or if the answers form a “bell-shaped curve” centered around the “c” choice. The total index value is derived by summing the scores for all ten questions. Index values for each of the two property types are similarly calculated.

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